The Bernie 50 State Strategy: What To Do Instead Of Camp Out In New Hampshire

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New Hampshire, like Iowa usually sees massive investment from candidates. But not only did Bernie win decisively but its next to Vermont and very friendly to him.

Sanders, as noted in the Iowa post, spend about 50 days and 20 million dollars in New Hampshire. Given the chance he raises significantly more money its really the 50 days that are most valuable.

Sanders can count on 40-50% in New Hampshire even if he doesn't campaign hard there.

Instead he should be heading out to the delegate rich Great Lakes states. Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are worth ~500 delegates total. Sanders should be looking to spend strong here and make lots of stops. Specifically he should focus his stops mostly in midsize and small towns. He'll want to reach voters in areas that receive little attention. Also voters from working class rural areas are his base for these states. Of course you don't want to ignore the big cities but he already has strong and organized volunteer groups here. A big rally in each major city ought to be good enough to beef up volunteer activity.

For the purposes of the 50 state strategy I've divided states into 5 groups. 30/40/50/60/70. He needs to hit each of those percentages in 20 percent of states to get 50% of the vote. He will over perform 70% in a lot of states. Especially small white states, and especially in caucus states.

In the 20 smallest states I expect Sanders to land 85%-100% of the delegates. This is because other poorer candidates with a focus in the early states and in large states like California don't really have the time, funding, or volunteer support and organization to canvas these states. Also a lot of them are very rural, white, and they tend to be Republican. Also they are pretty similar to Vermont. A couple of these states are southern so his average might be dragged down. These 20 states out of 51(Puerto Rico counts) are worth 494 delegates. That is 13% of all delegates. Sanders will probably be able to grab 420 delegates here, 85% of the total when you account for doing a bit worse in Mississippi and Nevada but he is going for 86% in Vermont and ND and SD and a couple others, shutting out any competition. 420 delegates is 11% of the total he needs to win so this will be a big help and cost him relatively little financially and visit wise.

The previously mentioned delegate rich great lakes states are in the 60% category. He needs to end up with 300 of the ~500 available delegates from those states to be on course to win. All of these states are not caucuses which means any other candidate who gets 14% of the vote or less is doing Bernie a big favor. If he was to get 50% of the vote he could easily wind up with 60-70% of all the delegates.

Indiana, 70 delegates, Illinois 155 delegates, and West Virginia 24 delegates are also on the list for getting resources that most candidates would waste in the Life Free Or Die state. Sanders needs to break 60%, or get 60% of the delegates at least. Sanders did very well in these states in 2016 but not quite 60%. However because these are not caucus states the same rules apply. A Cory Booker/Kamala Harris split of the black vote could put Bernie in a position to achieve his goals with only 50% of the vote if Beto and Gillibrand split the white party loyalist vote and especially if Bernie can get a good chunk of the Hispanic/Latino vote and keep Castro below the 15% delegate minimum.

Min-maxing the minimum vote threshhold is going to be key to Bernie picking up a decent early lead. Ideally the hodgepodge of party backed candidates stays in at least until Super Tuesday to split the fundraising and the vote.

Bernie will have to put in some serious work to make sure he never drops below 20% of the vote in any states but he is in the cat bird's seat right now.

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SandersForPresident: search results – self:yes

MSM at it again

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I'm watching CNN in my lunchroom at work, and I see a piece about Democrats pressuring Sanders NOT to run for president this time (i wonder why…). The very next piece is about Beto and the "homey" selfie videos people are making to urge him to run for president. They also discuss his lack of stance on certain issues (immigrants overstaying their visa), but give him a pass and laugh it off as Obama didn't know these things as well.

The bias is strong, and it's really disheartening to see that nothing has changed.

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SandersForPresident: search results – self:yes

[META] Ongoing issues with this subreddit that need addressing.

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I've been a long time user here, previously under a different account, but a long time supporter of Bernie Sanders nonetheless. In recent weeks, I've noticed that this subreddit has a few issues in regards to the community meta that probably need addressing before primary season ramps up in the next few months. I think it would behoove the moderators and the general community at large to consider these issues fully and find ways to address them for the betterment of this subreddit.

1) Leftist/progressive infighting and the promotion of other candidates – This is probably somewhat related to the Tulsi Gabbard posts, but this subreddit needs to have a low tolerance for people promoting other candidates like Tulsi Gabbard (either through comments or threads) and throwing out bait that is a catalyst for infighting and arguments. This is a Bernie Sanders subreddit. While some people may be supporters of Tulsi Gabbard, Sherrod Brown, Elizabeth Warren, or so on, the focus of this subreddit should be to promote the Sanders 2020 campaign, unless he announces otherwise. People that post threads about other candidates are only inviting toxic arguments and derailment that is not really beneficial for the larger goal of this subreddit. Can the mods please start cracking down on these posts?

2) Needless moderation and topic suppression – On the topic of moderation, I've noticed that some of the mods here are a bit overly anxious with their handling of certain topics, such as sexual harassment during his 2016 campaign. While these claims shouldn't be weaponized or used against Bernie, they shouldn't be frowned upon as topics for discussion here. I've had numerous threads deleted by mods for "concern trolling," which is somewhat odd because other topics on these subjects can exist. Today's topic about Bernie missing the Russia sanctions vote is one example. My topic was deleted, but two others continue to exist. Sometimes we have to confront negative or tough stories in order to find the right narrative and/or solutions. We can't have a "political revolution" if tough issues are ignored and suppressed by moderators. I appreciate tough moderation, especially in light of the issues we had here in 2016, but better analysis and consideration should be taken in regards to obvious Bernie supporters. Sometimes that takes some time to check post history and taking a few more seconds to consider the context.

3) Faux-progressivism and distorting Bernie's message – I've noticed some instances recently where certain users have distorted Bernie's message to argue for less-than-progressive ideas, such as incrementalism, tolerance of bigoted foreign politicians, and other weird positions. Bernie's ideas and platform should be very clear. People that promote contrarian ideas are often doing contrarianism for the sake of contrarianism. They don't offer any substantive arguments and derail topics. I don't mind having heavier moderation here, as these users don't really have much posting history in regards to Bernie or seem to be invested in other candidates.

4) Low effort posts – I'm thinking about bad memes or the 'Bernie is going to win the 2020 elections" post here probably, but as primary season ramps up, we need to avoid low effort content. We can't just make sweeping claims or post memes all the time. This place needs to be a tool for distributed organizing, as emphasized by some noted Bernie supporters on social media.

Thanks for reading!

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SandersForPresident: search results – bernie

Strange Odds Vegas is giving Bernie

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A sportsbook I'm familiar with is giving Bernie +4000 odds ($ 100 bet would win you $ 4,000) on winning the next election. How is that possible? Seems like easy money, or at least a bet where there is unbelievable value, not that I'm going to place a bet. I don't see him losing in the primary or general if he runs. Is it really that uncertain that he is going to run? This has been bothering all day since I saw it. I mean..he's going to be the next president!

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SandersForPresident: search results – self:yes