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New Hampshire, like Iowa usually sees massive investment from candidates. But not only did Bernie win decisively but its next to Vermont and very friendly to him.
Sanders, as noted in the Iowa post, spend about 50 days and 20 million dollars in New Hampshire. Given the chance he raises significantly more money its really the 50 days that are most valuable.
Sanders can count on 40-50% in New Hampshire even if he doesn't campaign hard there.
Instead he should be heading out to the delegate rich Great Lakes states. Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are worth ~500 delegates total. Sanders should be looking to spend strong here and make lots of stops. Specifically he should focus his stops mostly in midsize and small towns. He'll want to reach voters in areas that receive little attention. Also voters from working class rural areas are his base for these states. Of course you don't want to ignore the big cities but he already has strong and organized volunteer groups here. A big rally in each major city ought to be good enough to beef up volunteer activity.
For the purposes of the 50 state strategy I've divided states into 5 groups. 30/40/50/60/70. He needs to hit each of those percentages in 20 percent of states to get 50% of the vote. He will over perform 70% in a lot of states. Especially small white states, and especially in caucus states.
In the 20 smallest states I expect Sanders to land 85%-100% of the delegates. This is because other poorer candidates with a focus in the early states and in large states like California don't really have the time, funding, or volunteer support and organization to canvas these states. Also a lot of them are very rural, white, and they tend to be Republican. Also they are pretty similar to Vermont. A couple of these states are southern so his average might be dragged down. These 20 states out of 51(Puerto Rico counts) are worth 494 delegates. That is 13% of all delegates. Sanders will probably be able to grab 420 delegates here, 85% of the total when you account for doing a bit worse in Mississippi and Nevada but he is going for 86% in Vermont and ND and SD and a couple others, shutting out any competition. 420 delegates is 11% of the total he needs to win so this will be a big help and cost him relatively little financially and visit wise.
The previously mentioned delegate rich great lakes states are in the 60% category. He needs to end up with 300 of the ~500 available delegates from those states to be on course to win. All of these states are not caucuses which means any other candidate who gets 14% of the vote or less is doing Bernie a big favor. If he was to get 50% of the vote he could easily wind up with 60-70% of all the delegates.
Indiana, 70 delegates, Illinois 155 delegates, and West Virginia 24 delegates are also on the list for getting resources that most candidates would waste in the Life Free Or Die state. Sanders needs to break 60%, or get 60% of the delegates at least. Sanders did very well in these states in 2016 but not quite 60%. However because these are not caucus states the same rules apply. A Cory Booker/Kamala Harris split of the black vote could put Bernie in a position to achieve his goals with only 50% of the vote if Beto and Gillibrand split the white party loyalist vote and especially if Bernie can get a good chunk of the Hispanic/Latino vote and keep Castro below the 15% delegate minimum.
Min-maxing the minimum vote threshhold is going to be key to Bernie picking up a decent early lead. Ideally the hodgepodge of party backed candidates stays in at least until Super Tuesday to split the fundraising and the vote.
Bernie will have to put in some serious work to make sure he never drops below 20% of the vote in any states but he is in the cat bird's seat right now.