Why do I think Bernie Sanders is a good candidate for 2020 based on the analysis of 2018

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The map is drawn by these rules:

Firstly, I calculated the adjusted popular vote margin——a combination of actual house popular vote margin in contested races and an adjustment in uncontested by using the outcome in 2016 general election and the average of contested in the other districts in this state. The reason why I use popular vote margin is that the Senate and Governor race is largely dependent on the candidate, but the effect of a single house candidate can be counteracted because there are usually many house districts in a state.

The pink states means where the Dem won adjusted popular vote in a smaller margin than national average so it may leans GOP in a toss up race. The pale red states means where the Dem lost adjusted popular vote in a small margin. The deep red states means where the Dem lose adjusted popular vote hopelessly. On the contrary, the light blue states are where the Dem won adjusted popular vote in a margin slightly bigger than national average so it may leans Dem in a toss up race, the dusty blue states are where the Dem won adjusted popular vote in a big margin so they can not be flipped unless there is a huge red wave like 2010, and the deep blue states are where the Dem have won so much that it is impossible for GOP to take these states.

Based on the map I have these suggestions to the Dem

1,You have taken the rust belt back, It is a good news because those states are decisive on who will benefit from the electoral college (Yes, it was beneficial for the Dem in Obama era so he could have won in 2012 even if lost the popular vote by 1%). So in order to guarantee the presidency you should choose a person who can fit the needs of people there.(Maybe Bernie Sanders, I think) However, the sun belt are more difficult to pick and not necessary at the same time so you can just wait for them growing ripe.

2, If you can win the house popular vote margin by more than 7%, you may try to pick up the senate, as the AL is sure to lose and the CO and ME will be easier picks (the incumbency advantage has diminished into less than two percent in FiveThirtyFight analysis so I think Susan Collin is likely to lose under that circumstance), taking two of the three senate races in IA,NC and AZ(two of them are in sun belt) along with vice presidency is the most possible way. At that circumstance, a candidate that is welcomed in sun belt like Beto O'Rouke is a good choice. This candidate would better serve as a vice president because the presidency is more important.

https://i.redd.it/28we1d1eth321.jpg

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Berning Hindsight: Nominations & Voting for the Best of r/SandersForPresident 2018

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It's time to fan some flames for Reddit's best of 2018 awards here on r/SandersForPresident where we make progress by educating, organizing, & mobilizing people brought together.

Please reply to the flared comments below with nominations of comments or posts (unless specified). Return later & vote on your favorites from 2018 in each category.

Categories:

  • Best meme / fan made video
  • Best call to action
  • Best self post
  • Best humanity
  • Best research or idea
  • Best change of mind or community member introduction
  • Best AMA question
  • Best hidden gem
  • Best insight or explanation

One week of Reddit gold will be awarded to the winner of each category. A week will be granted to a nominator chosen at random from among the winners as well. You can nominate your own thread. Nominations & voting will close at midnight EST on New Years so let's GOTV before then. This post will be linked in the sidebar and in many pinned posts.

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Fun facts:


The discussions on Reddit helped keep our most active online supporters engaged and up-to-date on campaign developments. They provided a big morale boost to those of us on the campaign.

-Jeff Weaver

When people talk about how well we did with young people, clearly one of the reasons for that was our success with social media… If corporate media won’t change, and they won’t, start new media. The Internet offers revolutionary prospects. The future is in your hands. Let’s get to work.

-Bernie

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