There will likely be a lot of great progressive candidates in this year’s democratic primary. What if we formed a “sub-party” and held a progressive primary to pick the candidate we want to run in the democratic primary? Thoughts?

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I’m a bit concerned about the recent polls that have come out and I fear that Biden could snatch victory from a split progressive vote. How would you all feel about a preliminary vote so that people like Bernie and Beto both have a chance to run without splitting the vote in the democratic primary? A progressive “sub-party primary” if you will.

Here is an example of a recent poll: MoveOn 2020 presidential straw poll; Biden is runner-up

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SandersForPresident: search results – self:yes

Why do I think Bernie Sanders is a good candidate for 2020 based on the analysis of 2018

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The map is drawn by these rules:

Firstly, I calculated the adjusted popular vote margin——a combination of actual house popular vote margin in contested races and an adjustment in uncontested by using the outcome in 2016 general election and the average of contested in the other districts in this state. The reason why I use popular vote margin is that the Senate and Governor race is largely dependent on the candidate, but the effect of a single house candidate can be counteracted because there are usually many house districts in a state.

The pink states means where the Dem won adjusted popular vote in a smaller margin than national average so it may leans GOP in a toss up race. The pale red states means where the Dem lost adjusted popular vote in a small margin. The deep red states means where the Dem lose adjusted popular vote hopelessly. On the contrary, the light blue states are where the Dem won adjusted popular vote in a margin slightly bigger than national average so it may leans Dem in a toss up race, the dusty blue states are where the Dem won adjusted popular vote in a big margin so they can not be flipped unless there is a huge red wave like 2010, and the deep blue states are where the Dem have won so much that it is impossible for GOP to take these states.

Based on the map I have these suggestions to the Dem

1,You have taken the rust belt back, It is a good news because those states are decisive on who will benefit from the electoral college (Yes, it was beneficial for the Dem in Obama era so he could have won in 2012 even if lost the popular vote by 1%). So in order to guarantee the presidency you should choose a person who can fit the needs of people there.(Maybe Bernie Sanders, I think) However, the sun belt are more difficult to pick and not necessary at the same time so you can just wait for them growing ripe.

2, If you can win the house popular vote margin by more than 7%, you may try to pick up the senate, as the AL is sure to lose and the CO and ME will be easier picks (the incumbency advantage has diminished into less than two percent in FiveThirtyFight analysis so I think Susan Collin is likely to lose under that circumstance), taking two of the three senate races in IA,NC and AZ(two of them are in sun belt) along with vice presidency is the most possible way. At that circumstance, a candidate that is welcomed in sun belt like Beto O'Rouke is a good choice. This candidate would better serve as a vice president because the presidency is more important.

https://i.redd.it/28we1d1eth321.jpg

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Who is your “contingency candidate”, if you have one?

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If hell freezes over and the Bern opts out of the race, who do you think the true left should coalesce around, if anyone in particular?

Every option has a degree of baggage, I'd still go with Elizabeth Warren. If she could find a way to bounce back from her recent… bad press and questionable decisions, I do think she's the best option of the big names that are being tossed around so far.

That said I'd rather Bernie pick Nina Turner as VP, mainly because I think she buys into his out-of-the-box thinking more than any of the other options.

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Super delegates will probably choose the candidate in 2020

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Given how many candidates are going to run in the Democratic primary and the system of proportional allocation, it seems highly unlikely anyone will reach the number of delegates required to clinch in the first round. This means, under the new rules, the convention will be contested and go to a second round of voting in which super delegates become in play. It pains me to say it, but unless he has a truly commanding lead in delegates, there's no way party insiders allow Sanders to take the nomination in that scenario. Having trouble envisioning any other outcome, am I wrong?

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Ammar Campar-Najjar CA-50 Has Great Plans For Water Conservation, Farmers, Students and Seniors! OR Candidate Can Beat Indicted Republican!!!!!

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This is a dead heat race! Ammar is an OR candidate who was born in San Diego and is dedicated to saving it. Please just look at his water conservation plans alone. Meanwhile the republican duncan hunter was indited for over 250,000 in campaign fraud. He spent money for veterans on clothes for himself and then blames his wife! He runs attack ads on Ammar saying he is a Muslim threat …. when…. wait for it…. Ammar is actually Christian! https://www.campacampaign.com/

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