The Bernie 50 State Strategy: The 30/40/50/60/70 System: How Bernie Win More Than 50% Of All Pledged Delegates(2020 Primary Delegate Tables Inside)

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This post is about the core strategy of the 50 state system. I've already discussed how to allocate resources in smarter ways to get the most out of each dollar and donor and volunteer. Now I'm going to talk about actual delegate math.

According to my numbers Bernie will get 1806 delegates. As 1885 pledged delegates are required to win the ballot in the first round we'll need to make up some delegates somewhere. I have Bernie doing his worst in large diverse states and in the South. Part of this is that the 50 state strategy advocates allowing the huge mass of other candidates to expend tons of money and time in California while Bernie just tries to stay in the top 3 and above the 15% cut off. Its similar in New York. Its also relevant to note that all of the 3 highest delegate count states have home state Senators/political leaders running for the nomination. Harris and potentially Garcetti in California, Castro and potentially Beto in Texas, and Gillibrand in New York. I do advocate that Sanders campaign hard in Florida and Texas, which results in their slightly higher target percentages. The ideal place to make up a 79 delegate shortfall is in these large states.

I have Sanders sweeping the delegates in a lot of small states and/or rural and/or Northern Red states. Indeed he is above 70% in every state with fewer delegates than Nevada. All of these states have demographics that strongly favor him and also without a single powerful opposing candidate most candidates won't have volunteer operations or even funding to compete in these states. The second frontier for Bernie is to head to his 60% states and try to gain enough vote share to knock a few more candidates below 15% freeing up their potential delegates. However given the field and certain sort of laws about politics its a lot harder to make up votes in states where you are already doing very well. The third and final option is a stronger push in the South.

I have not yet written my Southern System article about how Sanders can improve on his numbers among these voters. This is probably his best shot. Unfortunately Southern states, excluding Florida and Texas, as well as Oklahoma and Arkansas, don't have a lot of delegates to offer. He'll probably need a mix of all three strategies to come out with enough delegates for a first round victory.

To some degree we also need to consider who has the other delegates in his best states and who he is competing with in the Midwest and the Rust Belt. Potentially Elizabeth Warren or Sherrod Brown could be holding onto Iowa and New Hampshire delegates and maybe some delegates from big North Eastern, Great Lakes, and Midwest states. They are the only two candidates likely to be willing to break with the party and put Bernie over the top, although I know many people still hold some resentment for their choice not to endorse Bernie in 2016.

On another note I am looking into making an interactive page with maybe maps and interactive tables so people can fiddle with delegate counts and percentages themselves.

State Delegate Total Bernie Delegate Target
California 416 30%+ (135)
Texas 228 40%+ (95)
New York 224 35%+ (70)
Florida 219 40%+ (90)
Illinois 155 55%+ (80)
Pennsylvania 153 60%+ (80)
Ohio 136 60%+ (75)
Michigan 125 60%+ (70)
North Carolina 110 50%+ (60)
New Jersey 107 40%+ (45)
Georgia 105 35%+ (40)
Washington 101 60%+ (60)
Virginia 99 40%+ (40)
Massachusetts 91 50%+ (48)
Maryland 79 40%+ (30)
Wisconsin 77 60%+ (48)
Minnesota 77 60%+ (48)
Indiana 70 60%+ (44)
Missouri 68 50%+ (38)
Arizona 67 30%+ (20)
Colorado 67 40%+ (24)
Tennessee 64 60%+ (38)
Connecticut 64 45%+ (32)
South Carolina 54 25%+ (14)
Alabama 52 30%+ (17)
Oregon 52 70%+ (40)
Puerto Rico 51 45%+ (24)
Louisiana 50 35%+ (17)
Kentucky 46 60%+ (28)
Iowa 44 30%+ (14)
Oklahoma 37 60%+ (24)
Mississippi 36 35%+ (14)
Nevada 35 35%+ (14)
Kansas 33 60%+ (23)
Arkansas 31 50%+ (17)
Utah 29 60%+ (20)
New Mexico 29 40%+ (14)
Nebraska 25 70%+ (20)
New Hampshire 24 45%+ (12)
Maine 24 70%+ (18)
West Virginia 24 70%+ (18)
Hawaii 22 70%+ (16)
Rhode Island 21 80%+ (18)
Idaho 20 80%+ (17)
Delaware 17 70% (12)
Vermont 16 85%+ (16)
Montana 16 80%+ (14)
Alaska 14 80%+ (14)
North Dakota 14 80%+ (14)
South Dakota 14 80%+ (14)
Wyoming 13 80%+ (13)

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SandersForPresident: search results – self:yes

Justice Democrats inspired by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are looking to oust Henry Cuellar, a Blue Dog in a very safe Democratic district who is one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress, in a primary election. (A Washington Post article)

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I have a few comments about this: In the context of promoting good faith discussion between liberals, everyone knows that the Washington Post gave the article such a stupid title (the title for this post is my own) which even stupider people (folks with some degree of capital and social media usage who can't be convinced to allow progressive policies that are not watered down, let alone revolutionary ones, for morbid reasons. As I've said before, think of, in one of the most peculiar cases, Sally Albright's social media manipulation through bots associated with "Donut [which is a reference mocking Nina Turner] Twitter" against pro-Sanders users) could take advantage of.

You can go ahead and look at the /r/politics thread for a partial example of that (the lack of encouraging/positive discussion that complements the lack of votes that would give this article visibility as the title also cancels out mostly any attention from progressives [until it's brought to attention in certain ways], tired from the aggressive tone from the media, that it could receive), but it's partial possibly because of the fact that no one would really want to actually crawl out of certain subreddits and create bad faith discussions to defend this Congressman (/r/VoteBlue, a subreddit that attracts the "Beto 2020" crowd and the like, hardly made any excuses for Cuellar against the threat of a primary from the left).

Aside from the title and the anti-progressive tone that everyone knows that the Washington Post naturally has (although the writer of this article is largely sympathetic, but that's more about the media being defined by a rule that inevitably includes "exceptions"), the article has important information about the strong possibility of defeating an actual Blue Dog thanks to the effort way may see from the Justice Democrats.

Henry Cuellar, Democratic Congressman from the 28th Congressional district in Texas, attended a fund-raiser for a Republican member of the profoundly reactionary Tea Party caucus in the United States Congress, John Carter, against a moderate Democrat, MJ Hegar, appearing to favor and give bipartisan credence and an air of acceptability to the former in a race that significantly turned out to be somewhat close for that Congressional district. John Carter was reelected. But don't let these few sentences give you the impression that he's only made mistakes here and there which is "why" these are usually emphasized. Just by the facts stated in this post's title alone, anyone could be motivated to discover so much of the reactionary shit that makes up Henry Cuellar's political career which serves as an indictment on the Democratic Party, as well as his complicity in the political careers of George W. Bush and Rick Perry who actually lead vile right-wing administrations.

I have one nitpick to add: Henry Cuellar in this article is noted to have said something about the people who want to primary him from the left (a very broad "left" at that), apparently paraphrasing LBJ:

LBJ used to say: What’s the difference between a cannibal and a liberal Democrat? Cannibals don’t eat their own.

Let's just return to that bullshit with Tea Party Congressman John Carter. His morbid hardline Republican-enabling hypocrisy has probably created many more "cannibal" examples that I'm not aware of.

A grass-roots Democratic group that helped power the upset victory of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has identified a Texas Democrat as its first target ahead of the 2020 congressional primaries — but as of now, Ocasio-Cortez herself is staying neutral.

Justice Democrats, a political committee founded after the 2016 election to reshape the Democratic Party through primary challenges, is working to recruit a challenger to Rep. Henry Cuellar, a seven-term congressman from a strongly Democratic district who’s one of the few anti-abortion-rights voices in the party’s House conference.

In a statement, the group compared Texas’s 28th Congressional District, which gave the president just 38.5 percent of the vote in 2016, to other districts where left-leaning candidates have unseated incumbents. It is launching a “primary Cuellar fund” to encourage any potential candidate that there will be resources if he or she jumps into the race.

“There’s an Ocasio-Cortez and [Massachusetts Rep. Ayanna] Pressley in blue districts across America, tired of seeing long-standing incumbents serve corporate interests, work with Trump’s agenda, and works against the progressive movement,” said Alexandra Rojas, the executive director of Justice Democrats. “These grass-roots leaders just need a little bit of encouragement and support.”

Cuellar’s office did not respond to a question from The Washington Post, but he has long been seen as a target for the party’s left wing as it works to build its bench. Last year, after a left-wing primary challenger to Rep. Daniel Lipinski (D-Ill.) was narrowly defeated, Cuellar told The Post that he would hold his seat in any primary.

“They came after me twice, and I beat ’em,” Cuellar said. “LBJ used to say: What’s the difference between a cannibal and a liberal Democrat? Cannibals don’t eat their own.”

The Justice Democrats’ campaign to oust “corporate Democrats” was restarted after the 2018 elections, with Ocasio-Cortez, one of her party’s biggest stars, as its de facto spokeswoman. In a mid-November call with activists, Ocasio-Cortez said that they could “save this country” by either shaming incumbents out of accepting “money from oil and gas companies” or by ousting them at the polls.

“We’ve got to primary folks,” said Saikat Chakrabarti, who would become the congresswoman’s chief of staff.

But Ocasio-Cortez is not intervening in the “primary Cuellar” campaign right now. In her first days in office, the congresswoman has publicly criticized a House rule that required offsets for any spending increases, while privately working to get appointed to at least one committee with jurisdiction over taxes or health care.

While she was not appointed to the Ways and Means Committee after a left-wing campaign on her behalf, Ocasio-Cortez is expected to get a seat on the Financial Services Committee. She is not part of Justice Democrats’ primary recruitment push.

“We’re not active in their process,” said Ocasio-Cortez’s spokesman, Corbin Trent, a co-founder of Justice Democrats. “We’re focused on getting up and going.”

Cuellar himself arrived in Congress via a primary challenge, ousting a more liberal colleague in 2004 to win his seat. He defeated that colleague in a 2006 rematch and has been politically safe ever since.

Left-wing campaign groups, which had their greatest success last year in deep-blue districts, have pointed to the heavy Democratic advantage in Cuellar’s seat as evidence that anyone who unseated the congressman would be elected in November. Cuellar also rankled Democrats last year by helping raise money for Rep. John Carter (R-Tex.), who narrowly defeated a strong Democratic challenger in the Austin exurbs.

“South Texas is in a special position to lead the nation on immigration, renewable energy, and health care, yet Henry Cuellar has failed to do this by instead voting with Donald Trump nearly 70 percent of the time,” said Danny Diaz, an activist in the district who co-founded a voter turnout group, Cambio (Change) Texas.

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SandersForPresident: search results – self:yes

Hold them accountable! Any Dem, in the house or senate, who caves & gives even one fucking dime to Trump’s wall needs to face a primary challenge in 2020. Bernie needs allies to fight with him for clean energy, infrastructure, medicare for all, not spineless cowards. #NotOneDime #FuckTheWall

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Get on social media. Call your elected officials.

Not one fucking dime for this stupid wall.

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SandersForPresident: search results – self:yes

There will likely be a lot of great progressive candidates in this year’s democratic primary. What if we formed a “sub-party” and held a progressive primary to pick the candidate we want to run in the democratic primary? Thoughts?

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I’m a bit concerned about the recent polls that have come out and I fear that Biden could snatch victory from a split progressive vote. How would you all feel about a preliminary vote so that people like Bernie and Beto both have a chance to run without splitting the vote in the democratic primary? A progressive “sub-party primary” if you will.

Here is an example of a recent poll: MoveOn 2020 presidential straw poll; Biden is runner-up

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SandersForPresident: search results – self:yes

When is the registration deadline for the 2020 New York Democratic presidential primary? “Please keep your eye on that issue” -Bernie, Nov 26th ’18

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I see a potential April 21st '20 date for the primary, and that "if somebody wants to vote in the Democratic primary (say if they're an independent or they want to switch parties) they have to do it 13 months before the primary)". So unless New York reforms the regulations that puts mid-March 2019 as a very important deadline.

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SandersForPresident: search results – bernie

Need your help: Pooling resources (links to evidence) on the how the 2016 primary was slanted against Sanders

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As you can see on the Wikipedia article on the 2016 primary – if you spend 5–10 minutes looking at the article and its edit history – there is a constant effort by some individuals to make it read as though it was a fair primary with no unaddressed controversies. Among others, username "Avial Cloffprunker" has been working the page since at least early spring this year, and every single one of their notable edits has been to downplay controversy and end every mention of it with "but it was dismissed" or something similar.

When even the Wikipedia page on the subject is the way it is, it honestly makes me question if I'm part of a minority conspiracy myself, despite living through all the shenanigans in 2015 and 2016. Wikipedia is usually my go-to resource when trying to find a relatively impartial view on something. This has huge implications on the people's view of Bernie deserving a real shot at winning in 2020, and possibly the DNC's views on how much they can get away with next time.

So, to all of you who lived the primary through with me, please reply with credible (as much as possible) resources and accounts of what happened in the 2016 primary. It would be great if they were good enough to be used on Wikipedia in a way that motivated people can't discredit the sources or reply with dismissals.

Many thanks for reading.

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SandersForPresident: search results – bernie