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I think we can all agree that Trump has been doing his very best to royally fuck up the US (and global) economy. In addition to this, America is currently experiencing its longest period of economic boom in history. In other words: a massive financial crash and subsequent recession are overdue.
Despite this fact, researchers believe the risk of a sudden recession during the year 2019 only lies around 15%. This may sound great until you find out the risk for a big crash increases to 60% between August 2020 and early 2021 (even higher after that).
So, what does that mean? It means that every Bernie/Warren supporter (every progressive) should be scared shitless because there's a good chance the crash will hit at the worst moment imaginable. If the recession comes (shortly) before the elections, it will hurt Bernie in several ways. Firstly, people tend to vote for continuity in leadership during times of crisis (this is a proven fact, it's not my bias). Secondly, the Republicans and the corporate media will both start to mudsling by saying how Bernie wants to ruin the economy even more with his expensive policy ideas ("This is not a time for such pie-in-the-sky proposals!") And thirdly, a significant part of the electorate will buy into this propaganda, especially if centrist establishment Democrats join in and stab Bernie in the back. This may seem unlikely today but when people get into serious financial troubles, it's super easy to scare them out of voting for progressive candidates. These factors may easily cost Bernie the election. However, if the crash hits after the election, things may turn out even worse. Think about it: this is the first progressive president in over 75 years. Incidentally he even calls himself a "socialist". And now what happens? As soon as he steps into the White House, the economy tanks, people lose their jobs, their homes, people can't buy food anymore… everything goes to complete and utter shit. Now you might say: "So what? That's not his fault" but I think you're being to rational for the majority of Americans in that case. Let me remind you that some people still believe Obama caused the Great Recession. Obviously this complete hogwash (it began in August 2007 when Bush was still in office) but people believe it anyways. If this happens, it might end up having long-term consequences on how the American public views progressives. People will say: "we knew it" and "the Republicans were right after all, socialists are horrible". People will be angry, disappointed and for the next 75 years nobody will want to vote for a progressive president again. All the work, the energy and effort would have been for nothing. A crash during Bernie's term would also hinder him from fighting for real change. Instead of being able to push for real change and big reforms he'd be stuck dealing with a broken economy and an angry population. This would be so frustrating and heartbreaking to watch.
However, perhaps the worst part about all of this would be that Trump would once again get off the hook while Bernie would receive all the blame. 20 years later people would remember Trump somewhat fondly, just like some people are nowadays remembering Bush junior fondly who should in reality be tried and imprisoned for war crimes and crimes against humanity. Meanwhile, Bernie would be remembered as the evil socialist who "screwed up the economy when everything was going so well".
Disclaimer: I'm not American, I'm from Western Europe. I do love Bernie though, so these are very serious worries I have. I wonder what you guys think about them.
submitted by /u/KingWithoutClothes
SandersForPresident: search results – self:yes