The Bernie 50 State Strategy: The 30/40/50/60/70 System: How Bernie Win More Than 50% Of All Pledged Delegates(2020 Primary Delegate Tables Inside)

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This post is about the core strategy of the 50 state system. I've already discussed how to allocate resources in smarter ways to get the most out of each dollar and donor and volunteer. Now I'm going to talk about actual delegate math.

According to my numbers Bernie will get 1806 delegates. As 1885 pledged delegates are required to win the ballot in the first round we'll need to make up some delegates somewhere. I have Bernie doing his worst in large diverse states and in the South. Part of this is that the 50 state strategy advocates allowing the huge mass of other candidates to expend tons of money and time in California while Bernie just tries to stay in the top 3 and above the 15% cut off. Its similar in New York. Its also relevant to note that all of the 3 highest delegate count states have home state Senators/political leaders running for the nomination. Harris and potentially Garcetti in California, Castro and potentially Beto in Texas, and Gillibrand in New York. I do advocate that Sanders campaign hard in Florida and Texas, which results in their slightly higher target percentages. The ideal place to make up a 79 delegate shortfall is in these large states.

I have Sanders sweeping the delegates in a lot of small states and/or rural and/or Northern Red states. Indeed he is above 70% in every state with fewer delegates than Nevada. All of these states have demographics that strongly favor him and also without a single powerful opposing candidate most candidates won't have volunteer operations or even funding to compete in these states. The second frontier for Bernie is to head to his 60% states and try to gain enough vote share to knock a few more candidates below 15% freeing up their potential delegates. However given the field and certain sort of laws about politics its a lot harder to make up votes in states where you are already doing very well. The third and final option is a stronger push in the South.

I have not yet written my Southern System article about how Sanders can improve on his numbers among these voters. This is probably his best shot. Unfortunately Southern states, excluding Florida and Texas, as well as Oklahoma and Arkansas, don't have a lot of delegates to offer. He'll probably need a mix of all three strategies to come out with enough delegates for a first round victory.

To some degree we also need to consider who has the other delegates in his best states and who he is competing with in the Midwest and the Rust Belt. Potentially Elizabeth Warren or Sherrod Brown could be holding onto Iowa and New Hampshire delegates and maybe some delegates from big North Eastern, Great Lakes, and Midwest states. They are the only two candidates likely to be willing to break with the party and put Bernie over the top, although I know many people still hold some resentment for their choice not to endorse Bernie in 2016.

On another note I am looking into making an interactive page with maybe maps and interactive tables so people can fiddle with delegate counts and percentages themselves.

State Delegate Total Bernie Delegate Target
California 416 30%+ (135)
Texas 228 40%+ (95)
New York 224 35%+ (70)
Florida 219 40%+ (90)
Illinois 155 55%+ (80)
Pennsylvania 153 60%+ (80)
Ohio 136 60%+ (75)
Michigan 125 60%+ (70)
North Carolina 110 50%+ (60)
New Jersey 107 40%+ (45)
Georgia 105 35%+ (40)
Washington 101 60%+ (60)
Virginia 99 40%+ (40)
Massachusetts 91 50%+ (48)
Maryland 79 40%+ (30)
Wisconsin 77 60%+ (48)
Minnesota 77 60%+ (48)
Indiana 70 60%+ (44)
Missouri 68 50%+ (38)
Arizona 67 30%+ (20)
Colorado 67 40%+ (24)
Tennessee 64 60%+ (38)
Connecticut 64 45%+ (32)
South Carolina 54 25%+ (14)
Alabama 52 30%+ (17)
Oregon 52 70%+ (40)
Puerto Rico 51 45%+ (24)
Louisiana 50 35%+ (17)
Kentucky 46 60%+ (28)
Iowa 44 30%+ (14)
Oklahoma 37 60%+ (24)
Mississippi 36 35%+ (14)
Nevada 35 35%+ (14)
Kansas 33 60%+ (23)
Arkansas 31 50%+ (17)
Utah 29 60%+ (20)
New Mexico 29 40%+ (14)
Nebraska 25 70%+ (20)
New Hampshire 24 45%+ (12)
Maine 24 70%+ (18)
West Virginia 24 70%+ (18)
Hawaii 22 70%+ (16)
Rhode Island 21 80%+ (18)
Idaho 20 80%+ (17)
Delaware 17 70% (12)
Vermont 16 85%+ (16)
Montana 16 80%+ (14)
Alaska 14 80%+ (14)
North Dakota 14 80%+ (14)
South Dakota 14 80%+ (14)
Wyoming 13 80%+ (13)

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SandersForPresident: search results – self:yes

Bernie Sanders is 77 only 5 years older than Trump but he looks like he could be Trumps father, does America really need a leader who could deteriorate in health much faster while being President? I wouldn’t trust him to drive a car if he was my Grandfather with how he looks.

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It’s a serious question, what if he wins and he dies the next year, can America really handle that right now? What America needs is a young leader not someone who is no longer fit for it. Change my mind

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SandersForPresident: search results – bernie

Economists find that Medicare for All costs LESS than our current system, and yet insures ALL people in our country.

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Medicare for All could reduce total health care spending in the U.S. by nearly 10 percent, to $ 2.93 trillion, while creating stable access to good care for all U.S. residents

Spread the news!

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SandersForPresident: search results – self:yes